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Today’s highlights:

■ USDJPY’s break below basing support at 112.58 turns the spotlight back on
more important levels at 111.36/16.
■ EURJPY’s break below key support at 118.73/47 sets a bigger top.
■ GBPUSD weakness overnight turns the spotlight to the recent low at
1.2347, below which can resolve the near-term range lower.
■ EURGBP above .8492 warns of a potential fresh basing effort.
■ EURUSD ideally holds below 1.0630 to keep the risks directly lower to
1.0454/45, then the 1.0341 low.
■ AUDUSD needs to remove .7649 to set a small top.
■ NZDUSD has been capped by the .7244 price barrier.
■ USDCAD focus turns to the range lows at 1.3031/10.
■ USDCHF has tested the 38.2% retracement support at 1.0034.

Today’s trades/positions:

■ EURUSD: Short at 1.0820. Add at 1.0575, stop above 1.0635, for 1.0455.
■ USDJPY: Flat, buy at 111.60, stop/reverse below 111.16, for 112.55.
■ GBPUSD: Flat. Sell at 1.2460/80, stop above 1.2505. Also add below
1.2345, for 1.2265.
■ USDCHF: Buy at 1.0005/00, stop below .9960, for 1.0140.
■ AUDUSD: Long, stop/reverse below .7598, for .7745. Reverse short here,
stop/reverse above .7779.
■ NZDUSD: Long at .7201, stop below .7130, for .7375.
■ USDCAD: Flat, try a long at 1.3035, stop below 1.3010, for 1.3185.
■ EURJPY: Covered the short at 118.75. Sell again at 119.88, stop above
116.85, for 116.85.
■ EURGBP: Short, stop above .8526, for .8305.

EURUSD :

Resistance 1.0597, 1.0608, 1.0618/30*, 1.0661/67, 1.0675/80**, 1.0696, 1.0700/01, 1.0710/14*, 1.0735/36

Support 1.0532, 1.0521, 1.0494*, 1.0473, 1.0454*, 1.0445, 1.0434/23, 1.0341**, 1.0272, 1.0255, 1.0236, 1.0217/09*, 1.0199

Below 1.0608/30 can keep the risks directly lower for 1.0454/45, then the 1.0341 low.
EURUSD’s bounce at the end of last week found renewed selling interest at price and potential trendline resistance now at 1.0608/30. We look for this area to continue to ideally cap to keep the trend directly lower. Near-term support moves to 1.0532, with removal of 1.0494 expected
to see a move down to 1.0454/45 next – the 78.6% retracement and price support ‒ and eventually back to the 1.0341 low for the year. Bigger picture, we maintain our parity target.

Resistance moves to 1.0597 initially, with a break above 1.0630 needed for a recovery back to 1.0670/80, but with fresh sellers expected here. Strategy: Short. Add at 1.0575, stop above 1.0635, for 1.0455.

USDJPY

Resistance :

112.47/55, 112.95*, 113.07, 113.35, 113.45, 113.65, 113.78/84*, 114.03/06, 114.38, 114.69, 114.96/98**, 115.13, 115.28

Support :

111.76, 111.63/59*, 111.36*, 111.16**, 111.00, 110.85, 110.26*, 109.93, 109.79, 109.00, 108.85.84*, 108.55**, 108.00

USDJPY capitulated below basing support last Friday at 112.58, and this has triggered a further wave of selling, which leaves the market on course for a retreat back towards the February low at 111.59. With firmer support just below at 111.36/16 – price support and the 38.2% retracement of the June/December 2016 rally – we look for a floor in this area. However, if 111.16 is directly removed this would signal a deeper sell-off to 110.26, then 108.85/55.
Resistance moves to 112.47/55 initially, with 112.95 needing to cap to keep the risks directly lower.

Strategy: Flat, buy at 111.60, stop/reverse below 111.16, for 112.55.

GBPUSD

Resistance:

1.2469, 1.2483*, 1.2505, 1.2523, 1.2571*, 1.2578/83*, 1.2547/50*, 1.2565/69, 1.2580, 1.2630/36, 1.2684*, 1.2698

Support :

1.2393/83*, 1.2347*, 1.2310/04, 1.2285, 1.2263/53*, 1.2216, 1.2200/1.2198*, 1.2187*, 1.2134, 1.2086

Downside pressure is building in the range.

GBPUSD has attracted fresh sellers on approach to price resistance at 1.2578/83, and the sharp reversal lower from
here Friday and then overnight leaves the immediate risk lower, albeit within the broader sideways range. Support moves to 1.2387/83, below which should see a test on the lower end of the near-term range at 1.2347. A break here is needed to warn of a more bearish tone again for the 61.8% retracement of the January/February rally and price support at 1.2263/53, with the bottom end of the converging range now at 1.2187.

Above 1.2483 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back to 1.2583. Beyond here remains needed see a push up to more important resistance from the top of the broader converging range at 1.2684/1.2707.

Strategy: Flat. Sell at 1.2460/80, stop above 1.2505. Also add below 1.2345, for 1.2265.

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