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credit suisse FX Daily

Today’s highlights:

■ AUDUSD has all but achieved our target from the top of the range
at .7749/79, and we look for a cap here.
■ NZDUSD continues to find a floor at our .7135/19 target.
■ EURUSD ideally holds below 1.0622/30 to keep the risks directly lower to
1.0454/45, then the 1.0341 low.
■ GBPUSD has broken its near-term range higher to target 1.2684/1.2707.
■ EURGBP risk stays lower for a test of key support at .8304.
■ EURJPY has held our support/target at 118.73/47.
■ USDJPY focus turns back to basing support at 112.58.
■ USDCAD has rejected key resistance at 1.3210/13 to reinforce a sideways
■ USDCHF is seen at risk to a setback to 1.0048/34.

Today’s trades/positions:

■ EURUSD: Short, stop above 1.0635, for 1.0455.
■ USDJPY: Long at 113.00, stop below 112.48, for 114.90.
■ GBPUSD: Flat. Try a short at 1.2680/2700, stop above 1.2710, for 1.2265.
■ USDCHF: Buy at 1.0005/00, stop below .9960, for 1.0140.
■ AUDUSD: Long, raise the stop/reverse to below .7649, for .7745. Reverse
short here, stop/reverse above .7779.
■ NZDUSD: Buy at .7201, stop below .7130, for .7375.
■ USDCAD: Flat, try a short at 1.3170/90, stop/reverse above 1.3213, for
■ EURJPY: Covered a short at 118.75. Sell again at 120.30 with a stop above
121.36, for 118.76.
■ EURGBP: Reversed short. Place the stop above .8526, for .8305.



Resistance :

1.0593/95, 1.0603/09, 1.0616/30*, 1.0661/67, 1.0675/80**, 1.0696, 1.0700/01, 1.0710/14*, 1.0735/36

Support :

1.0564, 1.0538/32, 1.0521, 1.0494*, 1.0473, 1.0454*, 1.0445,

Resistance at 1.0622/30 ideally caps to keep the risks lower to 1.0454/45, then the 1.0341 low.
EURUSD has extended its backup for a second day to test the 55-day average at 1.0593. We allow for an extension above here, but ideally look for a cap below price and potential trendline resistance at 1.0616/30 to keep the trend directly lower. Near-term support moves to 1.0538/32, with removal of 1.0494 expected to see a move down to 1.0454/45 – the 78.6% retracement and price support ‒ and eventually back to the 1.0341 low for the year. Bigger picture, we maintain our parity target.

Above 1.0630 is needed for a recovery back to 1.0670/80, but with fresh sellers expected here.


Short, stop above 1.0635, for 1.0455.1.0434/23, 1.0341**, 1.0272, 1.0255, 1.0236, 1.0217/09*

Marketing communication : This document has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and its author(s) is/are not subject to any prohibition on dealing in the relevant financial instrument ahead of the dissemination of the marketing communication.

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