From DB Insights :
The week ahead
The January labour force figures are due Thursday. Our labour market tracker continues to point to modestly positive employment growth – as such, we look for a 10k gain in employment and for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8%. Ahead of the labour force figures, the NAB business survey for January is due Tuesday, and the Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index will be released on Wednesday. Recent outcomes from the weekly ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey suggest a pick-up in sentiment is likely. Inflation expectations for February will be released Thursday. There are two RBA speeches in the week ahead. On Wednesday, Head of Economic Analysis Alex Heath will address an economics conference in Sydney, and on Thursday, Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Elliswill participate on a panel at a housing researchers conference in Sydney.
We expect retail sales for Q4, due Friday, will have remained robust reflecting the ongoing strength in domestic demand conditions. We look for retail volumes to rise by 1.0%qoq. Elsewhere during the week, electronic card transactions for January are due Monday, and food prices for January, due Tuesday, will give some early colour for Q1 CPI. Consumer confidence for February will be released Thursday and the manufacturing PMI for January is due Friday. We also expect to see the REINZ housing market report for January at some point during the week.
The January data on house prices (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Wednesday) are the key economic releases this week. Thus far, the impact of recently implemented macro-prudential policies have yet to have a broad-based impact on the Canadian housing market. However, the trajectory of the sector will be a key input into shaping the Bank of Canada’s outlook. Hence, these data take on elevated significance over the next several months. Wednesday’s manufacturing shipments will influence forecasters estimates of Q4 2016 real GDP. We continue to expect well above-trend growth of 3.7%, mainly due to net exports.
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