UBS insights :

Spot Desk Views

Levels EURUSD:
Support – 1.0590-00, 1.0570-80
Resistance – 1.0640-50, 1.0660-70, 1.0700-10.
Comment: Resembles a hurricane watch as defined, with modification, which is issued in advance of the anticipated onset of geo-political-storm-force winds in the area. For now it is unclear whether there will be a direct hit on this pair and, until then, expect rangebound conditions. Intraday, expect a 1.0580-1.0640 range.
Levels GBPUSD:
Support – 1.2410 (100dma), 1.2383 (low last week)
Resistance – 1.2480 (o/n high), 1.2410, 1.2550, 1.2580
Levels EURGBP:
Support – .8487, .8467
Resistance – .8550, .8600, .8642 (100dma)
Comment: Cable has shaken off a fair part of the losses incurred on Friday post the weak retail sales, but has not closed the gap quite yet. While we are below 1.2500-10 area I would prefer selling the pair, targeting a move back to 1.2400.
Levels USDJPY:
Support – 112.62 (Fridays lows), 111.60 (feb lows), 109.93 (daily ichimoku cloud)
Resistance – 113.79 (fibo level), 114.06 (fibo level)
Comment: Quiet last 24hrs with lack of economic data and US holiday, overnight comment from FED’s Harker – *FED’S HARKER SAYS WON’T TAKE MARCH HIKE OFF TABLE: MARKET NEWS – the highlight so far this week. The greenback with a bit of upside on back of that, but I think we can overall call it a muted reaction. For now it seems to be range trading across the board and market is waiting for further guidance from CB’s and politics. With widening spreads in Europe I prefer to play EUR crosses from the short side and hence EURJPY short here with a stop above 121.40. USDJPY levels to watch – topside 113.79 (fibo level) / 114.06 (fibo level), downside 112.62 (Fridays lows) / 111.60 (feb lows) / 109.93 (daily ichimoku cloud)
Levels USDCHF:
Support – 0.9950/0.9980
Resistance – 1.0050/1.0080
Levels EURCHF:
Support – 1.0620
Resistance – 1.0680 / 1.0720
Comment: After a reasonably quiet start into the new week (US holiday), the USD trading on the higher end of the last few days prices however there is little reason for it to break out of recent range for the time being. Some resistance seen towards 1.0050/1.0070 area where I would be fading into today. Cross has spent the Asian session in a 5 pip range and although I do expect more than that in our time it’s still very unlikely that we break out of 1.0630/1.0680 for now!
Levels AUDUSD:
Support – 0.7630-40, 0.7590-10 (*), 0.7550-60, 0.7507-08 (100/200DMA)
Resistance – 0.7700-10, 0.7730-40 (*), 0.7750-60
Comment: The market remains in a holding pattern for now and expect a muted intraday. Remain short in anticipation of a smaller correction but don’t see Aussie falling out of bed anytime soon in excess of a 1-1.5% correction. Stop at 0.7730-35, target 0.7590-00.
Levels NZDUSD:
Support – .7125/35 (100 & 200 dma), .7045 (base 12/Jan), .6950 (base 9/Jan)
Resistance – .7200 (intraday), .7250 (top 16/Feb), .7380 (top 7/Feb)
Comment: NZD the underlying short-term trend remains to the downside but a break below .7125 (100 & 200 dma) is needed to keep the momentum going. Until then I prefer to fade rallies towards .7200 with the s/l above .7250. Keep an eye out for the Global Dairy Trade auction results this afternoon.
Levels USDCAD:
Support – 1.3100 (intraday), 1.3025 (short-term trend line), 1.2970 (base 31/Jan)
Resistance – .3150 (200 dma), 1.3215 (top 7/Feb), 1.3285 (100 dma)
Comment: CAD has still no clear direction accordingly no strong conviction. I ‘m looking to play the 1.30 – 1.32 range with the stop at 1.3250 respectively 1.2950. Retail Sales numbers come out tomorrow followed by CPI on Thursday.
Levels EURSEK:
Support – 9.4350, 9.4000, 9.3800
Resistance – 9.5000, 9.5560, 9.6000
Comment: EURSEK traded slightly bid on Monday after Skingsley said there was nothing in the January CPI that signals a monetary tightening. We have Ingves on the wire today at 9:00 CET to look out for and the first level of resistance at 9.5000 has moved a tad closer.
Levels EURNOK:
Support – 8.8300, 8.8000, 8.7500
Resistance – 8.9000, 8.9300, 9.0000
Comment: Muted start to the week with limited interest in anything. Crude has traded positive the last few sessions and I think we could see a minor catch-up in EURNOK on the back of the lasted move. There still seems to be some decent wood to chop ahead of 8.8000 but I still rather want to play the pair from the short side at current levels.
Levels USDZAR:
Support – 12.90
Resistance – 13.20
Comment:. Little inspiration only overnight in Asia and as expected we stayed rangebound on Monday as well with the US holiday. Bids in the market can be expected around 12.90/13.00 in USDZAR, topside 13.20 initial resistance. Flows all light with no major interest to report.
Levels USDTRY:
Support – 3.6000
Resistance – 3.6380, 3.6650
Comment:. Some small 2 way flows on Monday but we were net USD buyers. Locals in particular looking to buy towards 3.6200.

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